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Alipoor J. The Futurology of the Syrian Political and Security Crisis based on Scenario Writing. پژوهشهاي سياسي جهان اسلام. 2018; 7 (4) :231-261
URL: http://priw.ir/article-1-387-en.html
1- Tabriz University , javadalipur@gmail.com
Abstract:   (194 Views)
The Study and recognition of the past, present, and future is the basis of decision making in the international policies and adopting appropriate strategies. Recognition of the future in the framework of futurology is carried out based on various methods. The purpose of this article is to examine the involved actors in the Syrian crisis at the three national, regional, and international levels in order to explain and illustrate different scenarios for the future of the Syrian crisis. This research used library resources, scientific research, and documentary reports in the framework of futurology and the method of scenario writing to map out different futures for the Syrian crisis. In response to this question that what future(s) can be predicted for the Syrian political-security crisis according to the past and present circumstances and various involved actors in this crisis, the article suggests this hypothesis that three scenario categories, including desirable, probable, and possible scenarios, are predictable for the future of Syria. Thus, within these three categories, five scenarios, namely, the annihilation of the ISIS and other opposition groups against Bashar al-Assad, the continuation of the civil war, the division of Syria, the collapse of the Assad Government, and the outbreak of a regional war are anticipated. The most desirable scenario for the United States and its internal, regional, and international allies, is the fall of the Assad Regime, to achieve this, they use all levers against the main supporters of Bashar al-Assad (i.e. Iran and Russia).
 
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2017/08/17 | Accepted: 2017/10/25 | Published: 2018/10/2

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