The war in Ukraine represents a critical geopolitical turning point that has disrupted the Eurasian power order and triggered a relative redistribution of power at the regional level. Within this context, Central Asia—long situated within Russia’s geopolitical orbit—has entered a new phase of strategic repositioning in regional and international affairs. The relative weakening of Russia’s geopolitical capacity, combined with the growing presence and competition of actors such as China, Turkey, the European Union, and the United States, has produced a complex and increasingly multipolar regional structure. Drawing on a composite theoretical framework that integrates Kenneth Waltz’s structural neorealism with the New Regionalism approach, this article examines the implications of these transformations for the geopolitical strategies of Central Asian states.The central research question asks how the war in Ukraine has reshaped the geopolitical behavior of Central Asian countries and to what extent these states have been able to transform great power competition into an opportunity for regionalism and strategic autonomy. The article advances the hypothesis that post-war power redistribution, while intensifying extra-regional competition, has simultaneously expanded the strategic maneuvering space of Central Asian states, encouraging them to adopt a strategy of balanced multilateralism, pursue indigenous regional institution-building, and deepen geoeconomic and infrastructural cooperation.The findings suggest that although divergent national priorities, institutional weaknesses, and sustained pressure from major powers continue to constrain durable regional integration, growing cooperation in transit corridors, energy connectivity, and infrastructure development is increasingly forming the backbone of an emerging regional order. Overall, Central Asia is undergoing a gradual transition from a passive sphere of influence to an active geopolitical actor within the evolving Eurasian order.
Type of Study:
Research |
Subject:
Special Received: 2025/04/30 | Accepted: 2025/09/18 | Published: 2025/09/23