Regional Consequences of Jolani’s Rise to Power in Syria

Bagheri Dolatabadi, Ali; Esmaeili, Ali; Akbari Dezdarani, Farshid

Volume 16, Issue 3 (Quarterly Journal of Political Research in the Islamic World, Autumn 2026 2026) Political Research In Islamic World (Priw) 2026, 16(3): 45-60 | Back to browse issues page

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Bagheri Dolatabadi A, Esmaeili A, Akbari Dezdarani F. Regional Consequences of Jolani’s Rise to Power in Syria. Political Research In Islamic World (Priw) 2026; 16 (3) :45-60
URL: http://priw.ir/article-1-2092-en.html

Regional Consequences of Jolani’s Rise to Power in Syria

Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi ^*¹

, Ali Esmaeili²

, Farshid Akbari Dezdarani³

1- Yasouj University , abagheri@yu.ac.ir
2- Islamic Azad University, Bushehr
3- , Islamic Azad University, Bushehr

Abstract: (9 Views)

The rise of Muhammad al-Jolani to power in Syria in 2024 constitutes one of the most pivotal political and security dynamics in the contemporary Middle East, not only restructuring the domestic balance of power but also significantly affecting the interests of regional actors. This study addresses the central question: What regional geopolitical consequences has Jolani's ascent entailed? The hypothesis posits that Jolani's rise has shifted the regional geopolitical balance to the detriment of the Axis of Resistance and in favor of Israel and Turkey. Adopting a descriptive-analytical methodology, the research relies on library and internet-based data collection. Findings indicate that Jolani's consolidation of power has strengthened the roles of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar in Syria, while simultaneously weakening the positions of Iran and the Axis of Resistance. This shift has in turn generated security repercussions for Syria's neighboring states, Iraq and Lebanon. Meanwhile, secondary actors such as Israel and the United Arab Emirates are actively seeking to exploit the evolving Syrian situation to recalibrate regional power equations. Israel's occupation of Mount Hermon, its support for Syria's Druze population, and its imposition of two attritional wars against Iran—aimed at dismantling the Axis of Resistance—exemplify its opportunism amid Syria's power vacuum. These policies, pursued with the complicity or tacit acquiescence of Arab states, are likely to render future regional security arrangements increasingly fluid, complex, and volatile.

Keywords: Muhammad al-Jolani, Axis of Resistance, Israel, Iran, Syria.