Quarterly Journal of Political
Research in Islamic World

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Some scholars believe that many of 2010-2015 upheavals in the Middle East are revolutions. However, if we define the revolution in a delicate and traditional meaning and draw off the variety of instability, it isn’t possible to call them revolutions except a few numbers with lots of doubts. But, most of researchers believe that the risk of revolution has always been high and because of this, the its perpetual attention and research is necessary. The Coup d’état is another upheaval which, notwithstanding the revolution, has been taken place a lot. The problem is that some of the Middle East’s Coup d’états tend to absorb the elements of revolution. So, the separating line between the revolution and Coup d’état often become pale. The matter emphasizes researching of it. Among different questions, the reasons of their occurrence have always been an important question. The article by reviewing the Arabic Middle East from 1992 to 2015 and by using the opinions of Iranian experts and the Fuzzy Delphi, found 6 and 4 general and key factors of happening revolution and Coup d’état respectively. These are only 20% of all factors, but have an 80% influence on the happening of it. The matter has functional advantages since time and financial limitations for actors prevent them to control all the factors effectively. So, governmental and non-governmental actors are searching key factors to reduce costs and achieve the most efficiency.

Keywords: Revolution, Coup d’état, Arabic Middle East, Fuzzy Delphi, Key factors.

     

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