Volume 16, Issue 1 (Quarterly Journal of Political Research in the Islamic World, Spring 2026)
پژوهشهاي سياسي جهان اسلام 2026, 16(1): 62-88 |
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mousavi S M, nasiri S. An Analysis of External Security Challenges in Afghanistan with a Focus on the Role of Pakistan. پژوهشهاي سياسي جهان اسلام 2026; 16 (1) :62-88
URL: http://priw.ir/article-1-2077-en.html
URL: http://priw.ir/article-1-2077-en.html
1- Assistant Professor, Department of Islamic Studies, Kermanshah University of Technology, Kermanshah, Iran. , smr.mousavi@kut.ac.ir
2- Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
2- Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract: (252 Views)
| Introduction Due to its sensitive location at the crossroads of the Indian subcontinent, Central Asia, and Western Asia, Afghanistan has always maintained a strategic role. The Hindu Kush mountain range, with its formidable defensive characteristics, has historically transformed the country into a buffer state between the empires of the East and the West. During the 19th and the first half of the 20th century, Afghanistan served as a buffer between British territories in India and Russia in Central Asia; to this end, even the Wakhan Corridor was annexed to Afghan territory to maintain a physical distance between these two powers. In the second half of the 20th century, the country was situated between the United States and the Soviet Union, attempting to preserve stability through a policy of neutrality—a policy that was ultimately violated by the Soviet invasion. Alongside Iran and Turkey, Afghanistan forms part of the “Northern Belt” (referred to by the Russians as the “Southern Belt”), which traverses the region’s high mountain ranges. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, East-West rivalries in Afghanistan diminished to a certain extent, creating new opportunities for the country. However, international and foreign competitions did not cease entirely; instead, they persisted, particularly in a regional dimension. Furthermore, due to internal rivalries during the 1990s, the country entered a state of profound complexity and was unable to capitalize on these emerging opportunities. Following the September 11 attacks and the subsequent fall of the Taliban, international attention toward Afghanistan increased significantly, and it is expected that the country’s situation will improve in the future by leveraging these new opportunities. Methodology In terms of objective, this research is explanatory, and in terms of nature, it is qualitative. This study seeks to explain the relationship between Afghanistan’s external security challenges and the role of Pakistan by relying on descriptive and analytical data. Given that the research problem pertains to understanding a complex, multi-causal, and context-dependent phenomenon, a qualitative approach is deemed the most appropriate. In this type of research, the goal is not merely to describe events, but to uncover causal patterns, the behavioral logic of actors, and the reciprocal influence among variables. Regarding the research design, this study employs a descriptive-analytical approach. In the first stage, the historical and political status of security in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s position within these developments are described; in the second stage, the causal relationship between Pakistani policies and the intensification or persistence of insecurity in Afghanistan is analyzed. To achieve this, documentary analysis and library research methods are utilized. Primary sources will include books, peer-reviewed academic articles, research reports, official documents, government statements, United Nations reports, security agency records, reputable think tank publications, and documented analyses of the developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The research population consists of the corpus of written and documentary sources related to Afghan security, Pakistan’s role in the country’s conflicts, and the dynamics of the South Asian region. Due to the historical-analytical nature of the topic, purposive sampling is employed; that is, sources are selected based on their maximum relevance to the research question and their ability to illuminate the various dimensions of the issue. The criteria for source selection include scientific credibility, direct relevance to the topic, timeliness, and diversity of perspectives. To mitigate bias, sources from diverse theoretical and political perspectives are examined to ensure the final analysis possesses a higher degree of balance and comprehensiveness. The data collection method is based on note-taking, the extraction of key concepts, content classification, and comparative analysis. Initially, data are gathered according to thematic axes such as Pakistan’s security policies, proxy groups, border crises, strategic depth, the role of the United States, peace trends, and the regional dimensions of insecurity. Subsequently, the data are organized into analytical categories to facilitate the evaluation of causal links and behavioral patterns. At this stage, thematic analysis can also be employed to identify and categorize recurring themes within the sources. For data analysis, the method of qualitative content analysis is applied. In this method, texts and documents are examined not merely as raw information, but as carriers of meaning, political orientation, and security patterns. Qualitative content analysis allows concepts such as “strategic depth,” “proxification,” “security threats,” “buffer state,” and “regional security” to be interpreted within their real and historical contexts. Furthermore, by comparing Pakistan’s official narratives, the positions of the Afghan government, and the analyses of international institutions, a more precise picture of the security conflict can be presented. In terms of research validity, the principles of validity, reliability, and dependability are addressed. Validity is enhanced through the use of diverse sources and multi-source triangulation. Reliability is strengthened by clarifying the stages of data collection and analysis and by providing clear definitions of key concepts. To reduce interpretive error, data are examined from multiple sources and through varied approaches to prevent one-dimensional conclusions. Additionally, the final analysis is cross-referenced with the research’s theoretical framework to maintain conceptual coherence. Pakistan must be regarded as the primary regional influential actor in Afghan affairs. In other words, the security-strategic relationship between the two countries transcends the temporary political approaches of their respective administrations at any given time. Consequently, Pakistan’s stance can be assessed beyond the mere political sphere. Pakistan’s political interests in Afghanistan are no secret; this is precisely why the country played a crucial role in providing military, political, and financial support to major jihadist groups against the Soviet Union. Furthermore, throughout the 1980s, much of the military and financial aid from the West, particularly the United States, was channeled to the Mujahideen through Pakistani military authorities. From the moment the state of Pakistan emerged on the global geopolitical map following World War II, its military and political leadership faced a profound border dilemma: the existence of a large Pashtun ethnic entity spanning its entire border with Afghanistan. This issue subsequently became a significant factor in the geopolitical games played by great powers in the region. It was as a result of the confrontation between the two superpowers-Great Britain and Tsarist Russia—that in 1873, the Pashtunistan region was detached from the territorial integrity of Afghanistan and annexed to British India. This historical betrayal was formalized by Abdur Rahman in a treaty signed with the British. According to an agreement concluded between Britain and the Afghan government in 1893, this region—which now constitutes the provinces of Pakistan’s border states-was ceded to the British government in India. Decades later, the Pashtunistan issue has persisted as a “residual threat,” evolving into a territorial crisis between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The emergence of the Taliban in 1992 is considered one of the ultimate consequences of this treaty. This treaty, which was imposed upon Afghanistan through force and coercion, resulted in the occupation of vast Afghan territories by the British government-a situation that was never accepted by the Afghan people, particularly the intelligentsia. It has consistently been utilized as a tool of pressure against Pakistan. From the Afghan perspective, the Durand Line was intended to define the British sphere of influence in the Indian subcontinent rather than serve as a permanent, fixed border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. In essence, these territories were regarded as a buffer between British India and Afghanistan. As Reza argues, due to India’s independence and the cessation of British sovereignty over the subcontinent, the Durand Line Treaty-which was originally a bilateral agreement between Afghanistan and the British government-has lost its legal validity. Therefore, the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan must be renegotiated. Consequently, one of Pakistan’s primary objectives in Afghanistan is to resolve this historical dilemma, stabilize a fixed border, and permanently neutralize the threat of Pashtun autonomy and secessionism-a factor that remains a primary obstacle to the formation of a cohesive national state in Afghanistan. Discussion and Conclusion In conclusion, Afghanistan, far beyond being a nation with complex domestic issues, functions as one of the most critical geopolitical and geo-economic pivots in the heart of Asia. Its unique geographical position—acting as a bridge between Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and China—has historically placed Afghanistan at the epicenter of competition among regional and global powers. This strategic significance has, on one hand, rendered the country an arena for political, security, and military conflicts, while on the other, offered immense potential to become a major transit and economic hub. A primary finding of this study is that, provided there is political stability, sustained security, and efficient governance, Afghanistan could play a pivotal role in connecting the landlocked territories of Central Asia to South Asian consumer markets and open seas. The passage of energy lines, trade routes, infrastructural projects, and transport corridors through Afghan territory would integrate the country into the vital architecture of the regional economy. However, the realization of these capacities has been consistently impeded by formidable obstacles, including internal insecurity, foreign intervention, great power competition, weak governance institutions, and inadequate infrastructure. From a historical perspective, Afghanistan has repeatedly served as a “buffer state” between competing empires and powers, a role vividly demonstrated during the Great Game between Britain and Russia, and subsequently during the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of the Central Asian republics, Afghanistan’s importance surged once more; it transitioned from a peripheral zone to a decisive link between the north and south of the Asian continent. The events of September 11 further intensified this significance, thrusting Afghanistan back into the focus of global security and political strategies. Alongside these developments, the role of neighboring countries, particularly Pakistan, has been highly decisive in Afghanistan’s trajectories. The geopolitical, security, and ideological ties between these two nations, coupled with regional policies and the support of certain militant groups, have exacerbated the complexity of the Afghan crisis and hindered the path to stability. Consequently, any realistic analysis of Afghanistan’s future must inevitably account for the interplay between domestic and external factors. Ultimately, it can be concluded that Afghanistan’s future largely depends on its ability to break free from the cycle of insecurity, proxy competitions, and external dependencies. Should conditions for peace, regional cooperation, and infrastructural development be established, Afghanistan can transform from a theater of conflict into a corridor of cooperation and economic connectivity. Such a transformation would yield profound strategic benefits, not only for Afghanistan itself but for the entire Central and South Asian regions. |
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2026/06/20 | Accepted: 2026/07/18 | Published: 2026/07/23
Received: 2026/06/20 | Accepted: 2026/07/18 | Published: 2026/07/23
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