Volume 16, Issue 1 (Quarterly Journal of Political Research in the Islamic World, Spring 2026)
پژوهشهاي سياسي جهان اسلام 2026, 16(1): 31-46 |
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Mohammadpour Dehsorkhi Z, Sinaee V, Shahriari A. The Impact of Gaza Peace Agreement on the Regional Policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran An Analysis Based on the Offensive Realism Theoretical Framwork. پژوهشهاي سياسي جهان اسلام 2026; 16 (1) :31-46
URL: http://priw.ir/article-1-2057-en.html
URL: http://priw.ir/article-1-2057-en.html
1- Ph.D Student, Department of Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
2- Associate Professor, Department of Political science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran ,sinaee@um.ac.ir
3- Ph.D. Department of Political science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2- Associate Professor, Department of Political science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran ,
3- Ph.D. Department of Political science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
Abstract: (751 Views)
| Introduction The developments in the Middle East in recent decades have always been influenced by the conflict between Palestine and Israel. In the meantime, the Gaza Strip, as one of the main centers of conflict, has a special place in the security and political equation of the region. Gaza is not just a small geographical unit on the Mediterranean coast, but rather acts as a ``strategic node`` in the equations of the Middle East. The frequent wars and crises in this region have affected not only the fate of the Palestinians in recent decades, but also the foreign policy of many countries, including the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since the beginning of the victory of the Islamic Revolution, Iran`s foreign policy has defined the Palestinian issue as one of its identity and strategic pillars and has made supporting the Palestinian resistance part of its legitimizing discourse at the regional and international levels. Iran has also always been trying to establish its position as a prominent regional power and sought to play an important role in the international arena. In this context, it competes with other countries in the Islamic world such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt and has adopted a comprehensive strategy that relies on the use of diverse tools to achieve its goals. These tools include: active diplomacy, providing financial and military supporting Shiite communities in different countries (Awwad, 2024: 138), therefore, Gaza has become not only a symbol of Palestinian resistance against Israel, nor merely a humanitarian or ideological issue, but also one of the focal points in the strategic confrontation and balance of threat between the Islamic Republic of Iran and its regional and trans- regional rivals. In recent years, the escalation of conflicts in Gaza and its widespread humanitarian consequences have drawn the attention of regional and international actors to this region. At the same time, efforts have often been fragile and unsustainable, the plan to achieve lasting peace in Gaza provides an opportunity to analyze its implications for the policies of regional actors, including the Islamic Republic of Iran. The developments of 2025 and formation of a trend referred to in political and media literature as ``Gaza Peace`` have raised fundamental question about the consequences of this development on the regional policies of key players, especially the Islamic Republic of Iran. Contrary to liberal understandings that interpret peace as a sustainable reduction of conflict and expansion of cooperation, realist approaches, especially aggressive realism, often consider peace to be a temporary phenomenon and a function of the distribution of power in the international system (Mearsheimer, 2001: 30). Therefore, since any fundamental change in the situation in Gaza, including the establishment of peace, will inevitably affect Iran`s strategic calculations, accordingly, the present study, using John Mearsheimer`s theoretical framework of aggressive realism, has examined the main question: ``How will 2025 Gaza Peace Agreement affect the power calculations, threat balance, and regional and trans- regional behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The central hypothesis of the research is that the Gaza peace has caused a tactical, but not strategic, change in Iran`s foreign policy, and Iran`s behavior can still be explained by the logic of power- based competition of aggressive realism. The main method of data analysis in this study is thematic analysis. Thematic analysis a systematic method for identifying, organizing, and presenting patterns (themes) within qualitative data that allows for the extraction of rich concepts and answers to complex question. The data required for this study are based on official documents, statements, and interviews with political officials of the Islamic republic of Iran. The statistical population of the study is the published text on the developments in Gaza and Iran`s regional policy in the period leading up to and after the 2025 peace. The selection of these data was made with the aim of achieving a detailed and contextual understanding of the logic, perceptions, and behavioral patterns of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The data analysis process in this study was carried out in four main stages, in accordance with the model presented by Brown and Clark (2006): Getting familiar with the data: In this stage, all collected texts and documents were studied repeatedly and in depth so that the researcher became familiar with their overall content. Initial coding: In this step, meaningful sentences, phrases or sections related to the research question (such as "relative power", "balance of threat", "axis of resistance", "change of tactics", "survival") were systematically extracted and initially coded. Theme Search and Identification: Initial codes were categorized based on conceptual commonalities and within the framework of key concepts of aggressive realism theory (such as power maximization, rational behavior in an anarchic environment, balance) and organized into sub-themes (such as “peace as a strategic pause”, “reconfiguration of resistance-oriented tools”) and then main themes (such as “continuity of strategic goals”, “tactical change in tools”). Review and Definition of Themes: The identified themes were reviewed and evaluated in relation to the total data and the research question. Finally, a network of main and sub-themes that provided a comprehensive picture of the answer to the research question was drawn and finally defined. Overall, the theme analysis method allowed this research to go beyond the superficial layers of the texts and extract and explain meaningful patterns, hidden arguments, and the logic governing Iran’s regional policy towards peace in Gaza within a specific theoretical framework. This method was fully aligned with the interpretative and explanatory purpose of the research The research findings show that the Islamic Republic of Iran has interpreted the Gaza Peace Agreement 2025 not as the end of the conflict, but as a new stage of hegemonic competition. From Iran’s perspective, this agreement is not the result of a fundamental change in the goals of the actors, but rather the result of a temporary balance and cost-benefit calculations; therefore, peace is considered an opportunity to realign power, renew forces, and shift competition from the military arena to the political, diplomatic, and narrative spheres. Within this framework, the threat discourse towards the United States and Israel is still maintained, and peace is also seen as a strategic pause in the path of long-term competition. Also, the axis of resistance has transformed from a purely offensive tool into an asymmetric, decentralized, and multifunctional network that, in addition to its deterrent role, has become a diplomatic bargaining lever and Iran’s political capital in regional interactions. The findings show that deterrence has also changed from relying on direct tension to demonstrating military, missile, and drone capabilities, and the tactical management of resistance groups has become more flexible while maintaining Tehran’s strategic guidance. At the regional level, Iran, by taking advantage of diplomatic opportunities, has tried to counter the process of normalizing Arab-Israeli relations, strengthen its narrative of regional role-playing, and establish its position as a factor of stability and an inevitable actor. Domestically, the Gaza peace has become a tool for strengthening political legitimacy, consolidating elite consensus on the necessity of continuing regional influence, and emphasizing the resistance economy as a support for national security. Overall, the findings confirm that Iran’s strategic goals have remained stable, but the means and methods of achieving these goals have undergone tactical evolution and flexibility in accordance with the new conditions. Using the theoretical framework of John Mearsheimer`s aggressive realism and applying the content analysis method, this study examined the impact of the Gaza Peace Agreement 2025 on the power calculations, threat balance, and regional and trans regional behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The findings of the study, which were extracted from a systematic analysis of related texts and statements, show that the Gaza Peace is interpreted not as an end to the conflict, but as a change of scene and means of competition within the framework of long- term power –based competition. This finding confirms the central hypothesis of the study based on “a tactical, but not strategic, change in Iran`s foreign policy and its continued explicability based on the logic of aggressive realism”. First, the findings showed that Iran does not consider the Peace Agreement 2025 to be a fundamental change in the structure of competition, but rather a temporary strategic pause. resulting from a fragile balance of a stable hegemony is inherently unstable and temporary. This view is entirely consistent with the hard core of aggressive realism: states in anarchic system seek to maximize relative power even in times of peace, and see peace merely as an opportunity to realign forces and shift competition to less costly arenas. Second, the research revealed that the “axis of resistance,” as Iran`s most important tool for increasing its power, has undergone a profound functional transformation. Rather than weakening, this network has evolved from a centralized, vertical model to an “asymmetric, decentralized network.” The increasing tactical autonomy of groups, while strategically aligning white Tehran, has both increased the axis` resilience and raised the costs of countering it for rivals. At the same time, the transition from “tension-based deterrence” to “over deterrence” shows that Iran, by publicly displaying its missile and drone capabilities and concluding defense agreements white Eastern powers, is seeking to dictate the rules of the game in a period when direct violence has temporarily decreased. This development is a tangible manifestation of “instrumental rationality” within the framework of aggressive realism. Third, Iran has found the Gaza peace not as a mere threat, but as an arena for diplomatic, narrative, and perceptual exploitation. The “narrative war” to redefine its role from “a factor of instability” to a factor of security stability, the use of diplomatic openings combined with a display of hard power, and the attempt to polarize an alternative ideology to the normalization of Arab- Israeli relations all demonstrate Tehran`s deep understanding of the “multiplicity of regional anarchy” and the necessity of balancing at different levels simultaneously. This active confrontation has transformed Iran into a calculated and flexible actor in the post-peace scene. This study also provides three important theoretical implications for the literature on aggressive realism: The generalizability of the aggressive logic to middle powers: Although Mearsheimer designed his theory for great powers, with hegemonic ambitions also follow the same logic of maximizing relative power in an anarchic environment, albeit on a smaller scale. This finding opens up new horizons for comparative studies in West Asia. Redefinition of the concepts of peace and deterrence. The findings show that peace in the absence of a hegemon is not the absence of competition, but “war by other means”. Also, deterrence in peacetime is not ruled out, but becomes more explicit and based on the demonstration of capacity. This redefinition can contribute to the theoretical enrichment of aggressive realism in the post-Cold War era and the emergence of hybrid wars. |
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
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Received: 2026/02/16 | Accepted: 2026/03/1 | Published: 2026/05/31
Received: 2026/02/16 | Accepted: 2026/03/1 | Published: 2026/05/31
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